There’s no hard and fast truth on why different players are acting seemingly strangely … there’s somewhat informed opinion … and opinion being at various stages of uninformed, depending on sources and how far you’ve delved.
My feeling is that Nigel is trying to do the World Statesman thing a la DJT, allowing himself some good ole Reform (and people of Britain) rhetoric, whilst positioning himself as that statesman, hobnobbing with the high and mighty, loved by all except the wrong ’uns.
There’s no doubt that the middling and emerging newly informed masses are more swayed by Nigel vis-a-vis, say, Gove, Badknock, Labour than maybe hardline Rupert … yet for Reform people, Rupert is laying it on the line far better … there’s deep distrust of Tice outside the M25 bubble yet Tice has his contacts inside.
My feeling is that, despite your and my misgivings on the terrible two, they’re still carrying a fair bit of the country, which will count with the non-aligned come elections … if the two factions, Faragists and real reformers, can somehow co-exist long enough to take power … why not?
To my mind, that one screenshot contains much … look at the political-ethnic-religious leaning of the writer, clearly anti-Assad and the Baathists, plus how relevant is the USA now? After Jan 20 in the US, I’d say increasingly relevant, which leaves the Shia v Sunni conflict to be evaluated.